การศึกษาลดความผันผวนของราคาน้ำมันขายปลีก โดยการบริหารจัดการของกองทุนน้ำมันเชื้อเพลิง

Abstract

This study focuses on the volatility reduction of the gasoline and diesel retail prices by allocating the oil fund to invest in the ex-refinery oil prices and the margin of the oil fund is used to reduce the volatility of the retail oil prices from January 2008 to December 2011 on the condition that the oil fund still has 28,465 million baht as it had on 30th of December, 2010. Then three case studies are performed as follows; Case study 1: Assumption that we allocate 5,145.6 million baht or 13.56 percent of the oil fund for the gasoline investment and 3,186.6 million baht or 11.20 percent for the diesel, the standard deviation of gasoline will be decreased 1.41 percent and 0.92 percent for the diesel. Case study 2: Using the tendency of the gasoline retail prices calculated by the linear equations: Y = (-0.169X) + 28.49 and the diesel: Y = (-0.011X) + 28.82 as the database to indicate the volatility of the retail oil price. Assumption that we allocate 3,859.2 million baht or 13.56 percent of the oil fund for the gasoline investment to indicate the volatility of the retail oil price, the standard deviation of gasoline will be decreased for 1.09 percent while the standard deviation of diesel will be decreased for 3.40 percent if we allocate 19,119.6 million baht or 67.17 percent for the diesel investment. Case study 3: Assumption that we fix the average of sum taxes and various funds of the gasoline for 16.93 baht per liter and for diesel 8.23 baht per liter. The standard deviation of gasoline will be decreased 1.48 percent and 1.27 percent for the diesel. We found that at present the oil fund doesn't make the oil prices balanced. But just supports the LPG and NGV prices. In conclusion the three management mechanism can reduce the volatility of both gasoline and diesel retail prices, owing to the standard deviation are decreased. However, they will be effective when the ex-refinery oil prices are continuously increased or decreased. If the retail prices are reduced and then increased as a V-shape, the mechanism will be inactive. Moreover, the ex-refinery oil prices are gradually changed and the oil consumption trends to be increasing, the volatility reduction will be low effective.